THE 3D TRAINWRECK
I've been thinking about the way 3D printing is developing and trying to imagine what it will do to the way we live a few years down the road.
I've reached the point where it seems to be time to put a book proposal together.
Title: THE 3D TRAINWRECK.
Premise: If it develops as I expect it to, it will kill a number of businesses and even industries, or at least force them to drastically rethink their business models. It will cost jobs. And as people print more and more objects at home, there will be less and less tax revenue for governments to use to support public infrastructure. There will therefore be a difficult transition period before the benefits of the technology overcome the negative impacts on the economy.
The book will of course have to cover how 3D printing works, where it's coming from, where it is now, and where it is going. Ultimately, we may be looking at something a lot like a Star Trek replicator. And if that seems unlikely--blogging like this would have seemed just as unlikely to most folks in the era of the Heathkit PC, the Kaypro, the Apple II.
So I'm getting the pitch ready to show publishers. Wish me luck!
posted by Tom Easton @ 8:42 AM
5 comments
5 Comments:
I've been following the growth of the 3D printing industry for about a decade and writing reports on it since around 2001 (most are private company reports). I've also give a number of talks on the subject and its impact since about 2004.
Fabrication technologies have become much more mainstream in the last few years, though I keep tabs on the subject I these days focus more on the underlying principles to change.
See
http://swardley.blogspot.com/2007/10/previous-talk.html
http://swardley.blogspot.com/2007/11/web-20-expo-berlin.html
There are a wealth of good sources for information on digital fabrication, the really interesting area though is the hybrid techniques which combine printing physical form and printing electronics. Especially the inkjet based techniques which provide both geometric and compositional freedom.
Another area which you might find of interest (something I talked about at EuroOscon '06) is the potential growth of new development languages - a form of 'spime script'. As hardware becomes as malleable as software then both can be written as instructions. This allows for a new language to describe the function of a thing with a compiler deciding what should "written" as hardware and what as software. It's a fascinating area.
You also have the whole issues of physical rights management, self replicating machines (Rep Rap etc), the growth of open hardware and social impacts of participation in the manufacturing industry.
Great field to write a book in, I look forward to reading it.
Thanks, swardley. The idea of "spime script" may prove very fruitful in the future. Meanwhile, I'd be careful of a term that is close to "spim"--IM spam!
The use of spime script is because of the term "spime" chosen by Bruce Sterling to describe a new class of thing which has both physical and digital elements and is fabricate by a technique such as 3d printing.
Most of my talks these days are around the underlying principles behind web 2.0 - however I'll dig up the last talk I did on fabrication (Euro Oscon '06). It touches upon commoditisation of the manufacturing process / fabrication techniques / spimes / environmental benefits / need for open hardware etc.
All my work is creative common licensed 3.0 - you are welcome to use any of it if that you find useful.
I'm writing at the moment, but on my current topic - so I understand the time and effort needed to write a book - particular on a subject like fabrication which is so wide ranging.
If there is anything you need specifically, just ask, I can hunt through all my old research reports on this.
Also in terms of traincrash - there are huge and positive benefits from fabrication technology. Yes it does mean that the inequalities of distribution of opportunity and ability will be eroded. Innovation is not a natural monopoly of wealthier companies or countries, it only seems that way as opportunities are unequal.
Hi Tom,
I've uploaded a video
http://swardley.blogspot.com/2007/12/old-fabbers-die-hard.html
from the last talk I gave on fabrication technologies and the future back at EuroOscon Sept'06.
If it is of any help, please feel free to use it.
Good luck with pitch.
Your premise is more or less what inspired this entry of mine: "The Accomplice".
As it turns out, I also cover much of what you mention in your last paragraph and as it turns out, I'm currently doing bite-size installments of ideas I've previously covered to help out friends/family/acquaintances who can't follow a post like "Smiley Face Savvy". Some of my references might be of interest.
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