3D FOR EARLY ADOPTERS

The Desktop Factory folks just sent out a newsletter announcing that:

Desktop Factory has received extensive press coverage over the past several months, and as a result the emails and calls continue to pour in with requests to get in the order queue. Most recently we made the cover of Popular Science magazine's September 2007 issue — which has pushed interest from the technical community over the top. So after careful consideration, we have decided to respond to the demand of early adopters (you know who you are) who are clamoring to get their hands on this innovative and exciting new technology. We are now taking reservations for our Desktop Factory 3D Printer with a 10% deposit! Shipments are planned for 2008.

The $4,995 price may seem a little steep, but it's comparable to what folks spend on other toys, such as snowmobiles and motorboats. It's also comparable to what you can spend on a high-end computer (especially if you want a Mac). So if you like to be the first on the block with the latest toy, and you have the scratch, jump in now.

I think you'll have fun!

3D PRINTING IS ALMOST READY FOR THE MASS MARKET!

A year ago I posted an essay on 3D printing, calling attention to a number of interesting developments that raised the possibility that the technology would before long be affordable for home users. By January 2007, I had to update the story, reporting that the price had already dropped drastically from the $20,000 neighborhood. The Fab@Home group had released the open-source specs and parts list for do-it-yourselfers to build their own; the bill would come to about $2,400. I said:

By next year, someone will be selling assembled versions. The year after, the price will be down to $1,000. Ten years after that, the large part of the economy that depends on selling small plastic parts, ornaments, and doohickeys will be hurting.

As it has turned out, my predictions weren't nearly bold enough. You can now buy the kits in a package for about $3,000 (assembly still required). If you have a little more disposable income--on the order of what loads of folks plunk down for a snowmobile or motorboat or even one of the bigger plasma TVs--there is Idealab's Desktop Factory for just under $5,000! The company says:

Within three years, Desktop Factory's 3D printers will be affordable even for home use. Imagine your child being able to select a toy from a catalog or even design his or her own and create it right at home. Think about the benefits of making your own parts for sprinkler systems or small appliances at your desk. The long-range possibilities are endless. Desktop Factory's 3D printers are set to unleash a new wave of talent and productivity in a three-dimensional world.

So where can you buy it? In May, Engadget said they were due to ship later in 2007. They responded to my email saying, "We entered Beta with our first customer on 7/23/07. All is going very well and we intend to expand beta later this month."

It won't be long, folks. This has the potential to be as disruptive a technology as we have ever seen, and it is developing with astonishing speed. And it isn't just a matter of making toys and sprinkler parts at home. This link, dated August 2007, is about using a special 3D inkjet printer to make artificial bones for implants. Things are happening!

As the gadgets get better and cheaper, you will be able to make any small part you need. Current businesses that make small parts (and small toys) are in for a shock, for their sales will drop drastically. It is already time for them to start preparing CAD-CAM files to sell online to users of 3D printers. Before long, that may be about all they have to sell. Note, of course, that they will be facing intense competition from hobbyists with their own files for sale, not to mention file-sharers.

MIRACLE OR BUNKUM?

A few months ago (http://technoprobe.blogspot.com/2007/01/cross-your-fingers.html), I posted on the announcement of Eestor's new supercapacitor replacement for batteries in electric cars (and elsewhere). It was billed as a "battery-ultracapacitor hybrid based on barium-titanate powders, [that] will dramatically outperform the best lithium-ion batteries on the market in terms of energy density, price, charge time, and safety. Pound for pound, it will also pack 10 times the punch of lead-acid batteries at half the cost and without the need for toxic materials or chemicals." First deliveries were to be for the Zenn electric car, scheduled for late in 2007. It seemed at the time quite miraculous, and I have been waiting with bated breath for the announcement that the Eestor gadget was finally available.

Even then, there was some skepticism. The gadget seemed to violate what was known in terms of chemistry and physics, and claims that it could pack 500 miles worth of driving energy into a 10 minute charge seemed too good to be true. And you know what they say: If something seems too good to be true, it probably isn't true.

It's beginning to look that way. The Eestor publicity machine seems to have been active lately, for there have been numerous news reports abut the secretive company and its world-changing gadget. But there have also been reports that it won't be delivered to Zenn this year after all. Next year, says company CEO Richard Weir. Maybe.

I'd like to think it's a "normal" delay in the introduction of a new technology. Unfortunately, the secrecy, the hype, and the "too good to be true" all remind me of such things as the Orbo "free energy" machine, which was supposed to be publically demoed in July. Is it a scam? It sounds like one now, but we'll have to wait and see to be sure.

"Free energy" machines, of course, are pure bunkum. See Robert Park, Voodoo Science (Oxford University Press, 2000). Park is a University of Maryland physicist who dedicates a great deal of his time to debunking bunkum. See his "What's New" newsletter.